2016 bellwether counties

In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. But both are worth watching. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Will That Last?]. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Jeff. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Not a bad streak. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. All other 21 counties voted Republican. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. ET. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? 2023 BBC. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. i.e. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Click here, for more. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). It's happened before. There are 391 such counties. Yes, another Hillsborough! Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It almost became religious.". Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Thank you for supporting our journalism. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. But it's still indicative of widespread support. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. (subject to censorship). The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Website Updates Paused But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. It also backed Gov. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Team up with others in your region, and help out by It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Their concerns are real. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. University of Denver, 2. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Election night is going to be information overload. Do you know this baby? Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Nobody forgot about politics.".

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